A massive space rock is headed toward Earth, with a potential impact in 2032. While it’s unlikely to cause global devastation, it could destroy a city. Scientists have identified the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, which is expected to pass by in late December, carrying a 1-in-83 chance of collision. This marks the most serious known impact threat of the next century, prompting international planetary defense measures.
While the risk seems high, scientists aren’t losing any sleep over it yet. The asteroid, measuring around 130 to 300 feet across, is far too small to threaten the extinction of humankind. However, experts warn that it could cause massive destruction if it hits a major city like New York. Its impact would unleash an energy equivalent to 8 megatons, more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that obliterated Hiroshima, Japan. The damage from the fireball and the shockwaves could kill hundreds of thousands of people, along with destroying buildings and cars. The asteroid would also leave a new impact crater, probably a few hundred meters wide and deep, similar to the meteor that slammed into Arizona’s Meteor Crater in 1908, killing 5,000 people.
Scientists are watching the asteroid using powerful telescopes around the world. The space rock, on a trajectory similar to the one that brought down the dinosaurs about 65 million years ago, is expected to have several close shaves with our planet in the next half-century. The next sideswipe is scheduled for late 2028, and it will be followed by six more close approaches between 2032 and 2074.
As it gets closer, NASA and other agencies will watch the asteroid’s orbit closely for any signs of a possible collision. If any change in the asteroid’s direction is detected, it will be adjusted so that the chances of hitting us are much lower. The asteroid currently scores three on the Torino scale, which measures the danger of an asteroid impact by rating its size, speed, and likelihood of hitting. Only the 2004 asteroid Apophis was given a higher score and that threat was eventually downgraded after further observations showed no risk of a collision.
Two international asteroid response groups—the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, which is co-chaired by NASA and the European Space Agency—are monitoring the threat. If the asteroid’s probability rises above 1%, those groups will consider sending a spacecraft to deflect it.
While the risk is low, this warning allows experts to work out a precise impact location and evacuate populations in advance. The asteroid is expected to pass by the Earth’s surface on December 22, but the odds of it hitting our pale blue dot are very low. But it’s worth noting that it was spotted early, giving us a better shot at preventing any catastrophe.